2012年5月15日星期二

中国近九层居民拥有住房荒谬


中国近九层居民拥有住房荒谬   
China's nearly nine layer inhabitants have housing absurd in where 

日前,西南财经大学和人民银行共同发布的《中国家庭金融调查报告》显示,中国自有住房拥有率高达89.68%,远超世界60%左右的水平。
A few days ago, southwestern university of finance and the people's bank and jointly issued the "Chinese family financial survey report shows that China's own housing ownership as high as 89.68%, far more than the world level of about 60%.   

报告还称,2011年中国城市户均拥有住房为1.22套。 
The report also says, in 2011 China city with worth 1.22 set of housing.  

这一数值比2010年中金公司发布的数据0.74套住房相比有大幅提高。      
The numerical than 2010 cicc data released 0.74 compared with the increase of housing.     

有人说中金的数据可能会更准确一些,大概是因为中金数据反映的情况离现实更近一些,中金的数据同样会产生荒唐和谬误。  
Some say the cicc, will be more accurate data may be some, probably because zhongjin data reported from reality more recent, zhongjin data can also cause absurd and error.  

这样的所谓权威数据,一经报告,就引起了无数的质疑声音,人们的疑问是,为何与人们的现实生活感受背道而驰? 
This so-called authorities data, once report, is caused numerous questioning voice, people question is, why the real life of people run counter to feel?     

是数据错了,还是人们的生活感受错了。    
Is the data was wrong, or the life of people feel wrong.    

这样的质疑并非没有道理,因为在现实生活中,很多人不少蜗居,就是蚁族,还有人睡在马路边。      
Such questions are not without reason, because in real life, a lot of people a lot of humble abode, is the family of ants, and sleep in the street.     

如果这样的数据有现实意义,那么,中国房地产市基本上就可以取消了,原因是既然有那么多人有房,哪里还有什么刚性需求,中国还要高城镇化建设有何用途,更重要的是,长期困扰中国楼市的供应不足,也可以迎刃而解了。   
If this data is of practical significance, then, China's real estate city can basically cancelled, the reason is that since there are so many people have a house, where and what rigid demand, China and the urbanization construction to what use is high, and, more important, long plagued China property market supply shortage, also can be readily solved. 

现实与数据出现如此荒唐的出入,到底哪个更荒谬。 
The reality and data appear so ridiculous in and out, exactly which even more absurd.  

或许有专家会打个补丁说,我们的数据统计口径和方法是不一致的,问题是,如果一个数据的口径和方法与现实差异很大,就算你做得再精确,也是没有现实意义,只会增加人们对于统计数据权威性和真实性的质疑。     
Perhaps have experts will make a patch said, our data statistics caliber and method is not consistent, the question is, if a size and the method of data and real difference, even if you do need to accurately, there also is a practical significance, will only increase people for statistics authority and the authenticity of the question.

为了揭示这些荒唐结论背后的秘密,中国经济网中经论坛做了一项关于为何出现如此高比例原因的网友调查,结果显示,75%的中经网友选择了户籍制度这一原因,其中有位中经网友回复说:数据并不能反映现实,我在农村和父母是有住房,但现在我绝大多数时间在城市工作生活,以后也想在城市生活下去。所以如果()数据上看,我也有住房,但我现在的生活状态就是没房,而且居高不下的房价以及各种生活成本的增加,使得买房这个梦越来越不现实了。      
In order to reveal the secrets behind these absurd conclusion, China in the BBS cew has been doing a survey about "why there are so high percentage of reason" net friend of study, 75% in the net friend chose "the household registration system" for this reason, among them in a net friend replied: "data and can't reflect the reality, I in rural and parents is a housing, but now most of the time I working in the city life, and will want to live in the city. So if (from) data on look, I also have housing, but now I'm life state is not room, and high home prices and all kinds of the rising cost of living, that buy a house this dream more and not reality."   

这位网友的说法是有道理的,但原因不仅仅止于户籍制度的缺陷所致。   
The net friend said that are reasonable, but not in reason check the household registration system caused by defects.     

很多学生的户口或者年轻人是在老家和父母拥有所谓的住房,但是有房不能,因为房地产是不动产,年轻人往往到外地工作和学习,很少在有房的地方生存下来。   
Many students registered permanent residence or young people in their hometown and parents have is the so-called "housing", but has the room can't "live", because real estate is the real estate, young people tend to work outside and learning, few have room in the local survive.   

如果房地产是动产,像吉普赛人的大篷车一样可以流动,那么,央行公布的数据是有意义的,但任何人都知道住房时不动产,公布这样的数据有何意义呢?     
If real estate is the "movable property," like gypsy caravan can flow, so, by the central bank data is significant, but everyone knows when housing estate, announced this data have he yiyi?   

如果是想证明我们在住房问题是已经取得了伟大成就,这样的说明方法不能服人。 
If it is to want to prove in housing problem is we have made great achievements, this method is illustrated can't justify.   

是的,中国住房改革以来,确实取得了很大的进步,但是,中国房地产市场还是不成熟的市场,还有相当大的人群需要安居乐业,市场空间还很大。    
Yes, China's housing since the reform, and it really made a lot of progress, however, China's real estate market is not mature market, there are quite a big crowd need to live and work, the market space is very big still.    

按着自有住房拥有率高达89.68%,那么,我们还要大兴保障房干什么呢?      
According to their own housing ownership as high as 89.68%, so, we have to ensure room's do? 

如果是想证明中国人贪得无厌,都拥有了住房还想再搞一套住房,也是有些牵强。 
If it is to want to prove the Chinese greed, all have the housing would like to make a set of housing, as some far-fetched.

固然是有不少人买了二套房,甚至N套房,但毕竟大多数的有房者还只是一套房。  
It is a lot of people bought two suites, and even N suite, but after all, most of the homeowners still just a suite. 

就算是想贪得无厌,如果没有投机性,这种贪欲也不是很强烈的,只能是想想罢了。     
Even want to greed, if not speculative, this lust is not very strong, can only be think it. 

产生这种荒谬的原因还在于,就住房拥有率这个具体问题上,平均数与现实的差异之大,可能更会揭示出拥有住房的差距正在扩大,也就是我们常常说的被平均被有住房      
To produce this ridiculous reason lies in, this particular question housing ownership, average and the reality of the big difference, may be more will reveal the gap is expanding with housing, is what we always said "average", "be a housing". 

无论如何,在对待房地产数据的问题上,一定要实事求是,如果数据不准确,不但会误导管理层,也会误导投资者,更会为市场带来巨大的混乱。 
However, in real estate data to, must be practical and realistic, if the data is not accurate, not only will mislead management, also will mislead investors, the more will bring huge confusion for the market.     

还有一些指标虽然可以借口各种各样的口径不同信誓旦旦的说这是准确的,但是,与一般人理解差距太远,得出的结论太荒谬,往往更容易让人怀疑数据权威性。      
And some index although can excuse all kinds of different diameter said matter-of-factly it is accurate, but, with the average person understanding gap too far, come to the conclusion too ridiculous, often more easily to doubt the authority of the data.      

中国的CPI数据也是经历了这样的悲剧,现在很少人再认为,我们的CPI数据能够大致反映通胀率,人们连大致反映现实都不认同了,这样的数据可能止增笑尔,我们不知道后人在研究这些数据的时候,会发出什么样的感叹呢?   
China's CPI data is also experienced a such a tragedy, now few think, our CPI data can generally reflect inflation, people generally reflect the reality are not even identified, such data may "stop, the smile," we don't know later generations of these data in the study, can send out what kind of exclamation?      

原来我们的祖宗很富,住房拥有率远远超过了国际上的60%  
The original our father's rich, housing ownership far more than 60% of the world.  


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